Does Silverlight need to beat Flash to be successful?
I've seen some posts and comments lately about how Silverlight can't beat Flash, about how it's facing an uphill battle, and the like. Personally I don't feel that Silverlight has to beat Flash to be successful, and I don't think this is even a major goal for Silverlight at this point.
Is there only room in the market for one RIA technology? This is kind of like saying ASP.NET can't be successful unless it totally kills PHP. There are still many things that Flash is better at, and if Flash is more suited to your needs, by all means use the right tool for the job.
In my opinion Microsoft needed a platform for creating online rich experiences that they owned. They didn't want to create their next wave of online offerings using someone else's technology, and the current RIA platforms weren't really suitable to their purposes anyway.
Even if Silverlight becomes the platform for a bunch of new Microsoft offerings but doesn't gain ground in the market overall, I feel it will still be a success for Microsoft. Anything above that is gravy. Do I believe that Silverlight will eventually become a major player? Yes, I do, and I am putting significant stake of my career in Silverlight's corner.
Eventually, in version 3 or 4 of Silverlight, it may offer almost everything Flash offers and more, but for now, it doesn't, and that's OK. If Silverlight in its current form does what you need, and you can do it quicker and better, go for it, but it's a bit early for the Flash/Silverlight wars.